Allianz publica un informe sobre insolvencia a nivel global

Allianza presenta su Informe Global sobre Insolvencia

Insolvencias empresariales a nivel global: ¿la recuperación final?

  • En 2023, 3 de cada 4 países registraron un repunte de las insolvencias empresariales, lo que se tradujo en un aumento del +7% a nivel mundial.
  • 2024 podría marcar el final de la recuperación, con un tercer aumento consecutivo en las insolvencias empresariales (+9%) que llevará a 2 de cada 3 países por encima de sus niveles prepandémicos.
  • Después de estos aumentos graduales pero consecutivos, las insolvencias empresariales globales podrían estabilizarse en 2025 (0%), pero estabilizarse en un nivel alto.

Previsiones para 2024 y 2025

Allianz Trade publica su último Informe Global de Insolvencia y desvela previsiones actualizadas para 2024 y 2025. Según la principal aseguradora de crédito comercial del mundo, tras dos repuntes graduales en 2022 (+1%) y 2023 (+7%), las insolvencias globales crecerán nuevamente en 2024 (+9%) antes de estabilizarse en 2025 (0%) en niveles elevados.

Las insolvencias (ya) están por encima de los niveles prepandémicos en la mayoría de las economías avanzadas
Como se esperaba, en 2023 se registró un repunte rápido y generalizado de las insolvencias empresariales y 2024 comenzó con insolvencias superiores a los niveles prepandémicos en la mayoría de las economías avanzadas. El número de insolvencias empresariales se recuperó en tres de cada cuatro países en 2023, y la mayoría registró un aumento de dos dígitos. Vimos fuertes aumentos en EE. UU. (+40 % en 2023) y en la eurozona (+14 %), con los Países Bajos (+52 %), Francia (+35 %) y Alemania (+23 %) en primera línea.

“El aumento de las insolvencias globales se aceleró en +6 puntos porcentuales (pps) en 2023 en comparación con 2022, moderado solo por las caídas observadas en China (-14%) y mercados emergentes como Sudáfrica (-13%) e India (- 8%). Europa Occidental siguió siendo un contribuyente clave al aumento mundial de las insolvencias empresariales a pesar de una ligera desaceleración (+15% en 2023, -8 puntos porcentuales frente a 2022). América del Norte también impulsó el repunte mundial, con una fuerte aceleración (+41%, +43 puntos porcentuales). Otro factor preocupante es el aumento de las insolvencias de las grandes empresas [1], que podría generar un mayor riesgo de impago para los proveedores más pequeños: en 2023 se registró un caso por día en todo el mundo (365)” , explica Maxime Lemerle, analista principal de investigación de insolvencias en Allianz Trade.

La aceleración de la insolvencia global aún no ha terminado, pero la recuperación está llegando a su fin

El menor crecimiento, las perturbaciones comerciales y la incertidumbre geopolítica preparan el escenario para otra aceleración de las insolvencias empresariales globales en 2024. Allianz Trade espera una tercera escalada consecutiva este año (+9%), impulsada por un aumento continuo en cuatro de cada cinco países. Los mayores aumentos se esperan en EE.UU. (+28%), España (+28%) y Países Bajos (+31%).

“Este aumento generalizado empujaría a dos de cada tres países por encima de su número prepandémico [2] de insolvencias en 2024, desde la mitad en 2023. Las secuelas de la economía traen consigo una gran serie de vientos en contra y desafíos. Estos ahora pondrán a prueba la resiliencia de las empresas que se han vuelto las más frágiles en los últimos tres años. Esperamos que estos acontecimientos lleven a que las insolvencias empresariales alcancen un alto nivel en 2025: +12% por encima de su nivel de 2019 en EE.UU., +8% en Francia y +6% en Alemania” , afirma Aylin Somersan Coqui, directora ejecutiva de Allianz. Comercio.

5 controles de la realidad para las empresas en los próximos años

Allianz Trade no espera un tsunami de insolvencias empresariales como el registrado tras la gran crisis financiera, cuando las insolvencias globales se dispararon un +17% y un +19% en 2008 y 2009, respectivamente. Sin embargo, la recuperación debería ser notable en varios países, en particular en las economías avanzadas de Europa, debido a empresas específicas (las más expuestas a problemas de rentabilidad y financiación) y sectores específicos (en particular, los sectores relacionados con B2C y la construcción).

Allianz Trade identifica así 5 «checks» para las empresas en los próximos años:

1.  Se avecina una reducción de la rentabilidad.

Antes de beneficiarse de la recuperación global que se vislumbra para 2025, las empresas tendrán que gestionar la desaceleración de la demanda global. En varios países, es poco probable que el nivel de actividad alcance el mínimo necesario para al menos estabilizar el número de insolvencias. Según Allianz Trade, la eurozona y Estados Unidos necesitarían +0,7 puntos porcentuales de crecimiento adicional del PIB en promedio en 2024-2025 para estabilizar su número de insolvencias.

2.  La incertidumbre va en aumento, desde la geopolítica hasta el creciente riesgo de impago.

Después de una serie de conmociones en los últimos años, el apretado calendario electoral de 2024 aumentará la incertidumbre económica a medida que los países que representan el 60% del PIB mundial acudan a las urnas. Este contexto agregará una capa de complejidad y riesgo a las operaciones comerciales, al dificultar que las empresas realicen pronósticos y planes de negocios precisos y creará volatilidad en los costos de los insumos. Además, la regulación también está aumentando, lo que puede obligar a las empresas a realizar costosos esfuerzos adicionales para cumplirla. Nuestra puntuación de riesgo de impago basada en nuestra exposición crediticia propia revela que las empresas están cada vez más preocupadas por los impagos, y el índice se encuentra en su nivel más alto desde 2022.

3.  Las condiciones de financiación y liquidez siguen siendo difíciles.

Las empresas seguirán enfrentándose a una financiación costosa, lo que mantendrá la preocupación sobre su capacidad para absorber los costos del endeudamiento y mitigar la presión sobre la rentabilidad general. Al mismo tiempo, la limitada disponibilidad de financiación pondrá en riesgo a los sectores y empresas más expuestos, mientras que el número de empresas frágiles sigue siendo notable en el Reino Unido (15%), Francia (14%), Italia (9%) y Alemania ( 7%).

4.  Las nuevas empresas afrontarán su primera prueba real de resiliencia.

Esperamos que la aceleración pospandémica en la creación de empresas impulse el aumento «natural» de las insolvencias empresariales. En Europa, el registro de nuevas empresas resultó ser un +14 % mayor en 2021-2023, en comparación con 2016-2019. Para esas empresas, 2024 será la primera prueba «verdadera» de resiliencia, especialmente en los países donde se establecieron las empresas más nuevas, en particular Francia (+47%), los Países Bajos (+28%) y Bélgica (+14%).

5.  Algunos sectores plantean mayores riesgos para el empleo y la economía en general.

Los sectores y empresas más expuestos a los riesgos de una demanda más débil durante más tiempo y costos financieros elevados y prolongados son aquellos que dependen del gasto discrecional (fabricación y venta al por menor de bienes no esenciales, hoteles, restaurantes, turismo y otras actividades de ocio) y mano de obra. -intensivos (construcción, transporte por carretera, hoteles, restaurantes, asistencia sanitaria, servicios empresariales específicos). La construcción y el sector inmobiliario, que ya experimentaron aumentos notables en Europa y Asia en 2023, aumentarán las cifras nacionales de insolvencias empresariales debido a la desaceleración cíclica y por razones demográficas empresariales. La continuación del ritmo más reciente significaría que más de 16.000 empresas quebrarían en Francia, más de 7.000 en el Reino Unido, cerca de 4.000 en Alemania y 2.000 en Italia.

¿Quieres consultar todas las previsiones y análisis de insolvencia del informe Allianz?

Puedes descargar el informe en inglés aquí y leer nuestra traducción en castellano realizada con google machine translator aquí.

FUENTE: Allianz Research

Moya&Emery puede ayudarte con tus deudas

¿Quieres saber más acerca de los procedimientos recogidos por la Ley Concursal para empresas o particulares y resto de normativa en materia de insolvencias? Podemos ayudarte con tus deudas, su refinanciación y, si cumples con los requisitos, llegar a exonerarte de las mismas. Haz clic aquí o visita en nuestro blog entradas previas relacionadas con el mecanismo de la segunda oportunidad haciendo clic aquí e infórmate a través de nuestra web. Luego, no dudes en solicitar tu cita previa para que realicemos un estudio gratuito de tu caso. No pierdas la posibilidad de acogerte a la segunda oportunidad

O rellena nuestro formulario para ponernos en contacto contigo.

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